Kodi B. Arfer. PhD
Postdoctoral Scholar
Center for HIV Identification, Prevention, and Treatment Services, Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, UCLA
Data analysis typically focuses on inference about the unobservable true parameters of a postulated true data-generating model. An alternative is to focus on the model’s accuracy in predicting values on outcome variables. Predictive data analysis allows evaluating a wide variety of models in a straightforward way. It produces measures of predictive accuracy that show how practically useful a model and a set of variables are in predicting an outcome. Using Medicare claims data from HIV-positive Californians, I investigate how comorbidity information—knowing what conditions other than HIV a patient has been diagnosed with—can be used to predict medical costs. I show how difficulties in the data, from highly skewed distributions to the differences between Medicare and Medicaid, can be addressed with predictive strategies. I find that comorbidities are indeed predictively useful, especially for inpatient costs.
The CHIPTS’ Methods Core hosts a monthly seminar series, which are one-hour workshops on research and statistical methods. The seminars are open to HIV researchers, faculty, students, and community. To see previous seminars, check out the Methods Seminar tag or you can find seminar videos on our Youtube Channel! This series is hosted by the Center for HIV Identification, Prevention, and Treatment Services (CHIPTS) and made possible by funds from the National Institute of Mental Health (MH058107).
community partners, hosted a one-day event on “Addressing the Intersection of Racism and HIV.” The event discussed important topics such as the role of mass incarceration in the spread of HIV, provision of health care services by jails and police departments to economically disadvantaged people and other individuals who come in contact with law enforcement, and the shifting demographics of HIV and how that impacts the policy decisions being made. Speakers challenged those of us in attendance to reflect on the ways in which organizational practices could have unintended, negative 
consequences that disproportionately impact HIV-positive people of color. Additionally, panelists discussed the ways in which the direct criminalization of HIV promulgates stigma and fear among the community. The event was a great success, providing important and relevant information to over 120 frontline staff, including Drug and Alcohol Counselors, MSWs, MFTs, public health professionals, and LCSWs!